The real estate business introduces the practitioner to a number of interesting buying/selling circumstances. First-time buyers, renters, commercial clients and downsizers are a few of the situations we’ve helped clients navigate. Late last year, we embarked on our own real estate adventure when our son, Cole, decided to relocate to Victoria, British Columbia. At 22 years, Cole had decided that the Southern Ontario climate was not conducive to his current training passion. An off-spiring relocation was new because our boys had pursued further education close to home, but this time we had to make the leap.

Throughout his formative years, Cole competed at a high level in almost every sport under the sun. While cross training for mixed martial arts, he found a passion in competitive road cycling. He tried to work on an indoor trainer during the winter months, but static training just didn’t cut it and a move to fairer conditions was necessary. He secured a job in Victoria and after job training was given a month to get his affairs together and move to British Columbia. One of his hometown friends caught wind of this bold plan and decided Ontario wasn’t for him either and decided to move with Cole (Insert the theme from The Beverly Hillbillies). We started to look for suitable living spots in the city and realized that rent was quite pricey. We pitched the idea that the guys should forgo renting and seek to enter the real estate market as first-time buyers. In short order, we found a two-bedroom condominium in uptown Victoria at a reasonable price (compared to the GTA) and made an offer. The guys were thrilled, and it was decided that Cole would be the advance scout. He would move out first and take possession of the condo. His friend would follow shortly after graduating school in early 2021. Now we were faced with the moving logistics.

When we embarked on this plan the weather was fair and the leaves offered a palette of brilliant colours. Winter was approaching quickly, and we had to decide how to move Cole and his belongings to the west coast. After considering several options, we settled on renting a cube van (one way) and convoy across the country. I would drive the cube van and Cole would drive his diesel Chev Cruze from the Durham Region to Vancouver Island. What could go wrong? 

The fall weather was holding in Ontario, but we knew the west was a different story and a three-day trek was planned. I booked a week off work and plotted our campaign as skillfully as a platoon commander moving an armoured column. Every detail was considered, we would leave early on a Tuesday morning to be at the Tsawwassen Ferry Friday afternoon for the water crossing. As planned, we left the front door of our Whitby home shortly after 3:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning filled with excitement, confident that our plan was foolproof; we were wrong. The first night we would make it to Thunder Bay with enough time for a solid meal and a good rest. We wouldn’t be able to use the United States as a short cut because of Covid, so the first day was a long haul. The day was uneventful, as we approached Thunder Bay, we were told by colleagues to hustle as the city was about to suffer the first unexpected winter storm. Thankfully, no snow was in sight as we hit the pillow with a plan to rise early and start our way to Regina (Day 1-1413 kms).

Hopes were dashed as the alarm went off at 5:00 a.m. and blizzard conditions were raging outside. Although the snow had only accumulated a few inches, the winds were savage, and visibility was poor. The decision was made to give the roads a shot, little did we know that the police has closed the Trans-Canada Highway and a quick retreat was made to the hotel for more shut eye. By 9:00 a.m. the snow had stopped, and we ventured out four hours late. Crossing the first time zone would buy us an hour, but the plan to have dinner in Regina was dashed. Our two-vehicle convoy chugged passed the reason the highway had been closed hours before. Many of the locals were stranded on the Trans-Canada when the storm hit, and the police were assisting their rescue. Luckily, we drove out of the snow impacted area and were able to hit our stride as we made the eight-hour trek to the Manitoba border. As we approached Regina, we were slowed by prairie snow squalls the like I had never seen, snow came at the windshield as if the Millennium Falcon had just hit light speed. The rest of the route to Regina was uneventful, we arrived at 10:30 p.m. to find that the city had closed hours before. As I jumped from the cab of the Ford Super Duty my knees buckled in pain from being stationary for so long. A dinner of roadside fair and to bed thinking that the path to the B.C. interior would be a cinch, wrong (Day 2-1283 kms).

Day 3 started with bright prairie sun and bone chilling temperatures. The wagon train had to make it to Kamloops and our last hotel stay. Just a simple drive through the remainder of Saskatchewan, Alberta and into the mountains, should be easy enough. I had heard mention of The Badlands, but never imagined how bad they could be in mid-November. A strong highway crosswind made in necessary to steer the truck sideways for the better part of the trip toward Calgary. The wind was so strong that the truck sides made thumping and creaking sounds as if it would be torn apart at any moment. We dare not stop for fear that we would never make it back on the road. It was at this moment that I gained a deep respect for the professional truckers that keep our economy moving during the Canadian winter. The Trans-Canada was caked with about four inches of ice that had been created by blowing snow and the compaction of truck tires. We were fortunate to join a train of 53’ trucks that adopted us into their fraternity. To our great relief the winds subsided as we approached Calgary, an urban respite from the tundra. Approaching dinner, we headed out of the city toward the mountains, quickly the winds raged again flowing off the mountain peaks pushing our vehicles off the road. It was back to white knuckle driving and prayers that we would soon be in the shelter of the mountains. As darkness fell the snow started, visibility was poor, and the roads were treacherous. It was during this stretch that Cole and I decided that we might not make it. We both tried to call Trish to convey how harrowing our situation was and that we might find our early graves in the Canadian Cordillera. She was out for dinner (lol). The two time zones we crossed that day bought us a couple of extra hours or we would have run out of night. I had always considered myself a skilled driver, but nothing prepared me for the twists and climbs the mountain highways presented. Trying to blindly predict the nature of the road in total darkness presented some of the most frightening moments of my life. I would be following the taillights of a large truck only to have them disappear around a seemingly 90- degree turn, leaving me to predict what was next. We arrived in Kamloops well after the sidewalks had rolled up and were lucky to dine on the last of the ready-to-eat fare from the closing supermarket. The final approach to Vancouver would be a breeze and with a welcome respite provided by the Island ferry (Day 3-1373 kms).

Just a quick descent out of the mountains and a river run to Delta and the ferry, a nice restful drive. The day broke with yet another blizzard. Not to worry, we had plenty of time to make the ferry at 2:00 p.m. The Coquihalla Highway proved to be the worst stretch by far. We crept out of Kamloops and waited patiently to escape the snow as we came out of the mountains. As we descended, we noticed that the police has closed the highway in the opposite direction, a wise move after we had spent hours in the snow. Thankfully, we joined the shelter of a group of truckers and used them to gauge the conditions. Delays assured that the 2:00 p.m.  ferry was a pipe dream and I had to scramble to change our plans. We would make the crossing at dinner as long as we could get there in one piece. Approximately 150 kms from the coast, it was as if Mother Nature had snapped her fingers, torrential rain began to fall, the snow was a distant memory. I had never been so happy to see the sky open in my life and realized that I was not going to perish on this adventure. We wouldn’t make it to the storage unit in Victoria before closing, but we would be alive. The Tsawwassen sun shone brightly and for the first time in days, I cracked the window of the truck enjoying the sea air as we boarded the ship. Covid confined Cole to the comfort of the Cruze below deck, while I was able to stroll the promenade. The temperature on the crossing was likely just above zero, but I strolled that ship like I was on the upper deck of a Caribbean cruise.

The rest is quite boring. Victoria offered open restaurants, pizza and beer; we had arrived in paradise. That night we slept a solid fourteen hours recovering from our ordeal. An unmatched bond was built between father and son based on terror, anguish and loathing of our travel choice. Since then when feeling down, we remind ourselves that we endured far worse, a winter drive across Canada. It was only when we arrived in British Columbia that we realized we had broken the law by making the trip without the necessity of snow tires and chains. I will vehemently oppose any suggestion to make such a trip again, as the western mountains should only be enjoyed through the window of business class. How we made it shall remain a tale to be told by two men that will always share an unflappable respect for the land.

There was an interesting opinion piece in The Globe and Mail on Friday January 8, 2021, written by Alex Bozikovic, discussing a proposed development on the southwest corner of Yonge and Eglinton in Toronto. Mr. Bozikovic is the architecture critic for the paper and has made contributions to several publications and authored a book on Toronto architecture.

Bozikovic hearkens back to the 1950s and 1960s when the hot idea in urban design was to create spaces to be “park-like, uncrowded…they will be clean, impressive and monumental (and) will have all the attributes of a well-kept dignified cemetery”. While this may have seemed desirable fifty years ago, I believe a neighbourhood without proper access can become boring, underutilized and dangerous.

The site in question housed a large TTC yard and Canada Square. The current proposal would see 600,000 square feet of commercial space lost, in the interim, and replaced with a mixed residential and commercial community built on top of a new bus terminal. Essentially, a large office tower would be built along Eglinton Ave West. Moving south a planned green space would be built over the concreate of the bus terminal adjacent to four large residential buildings on a small cul-de-sac. One can imagine what this type of development would do to the traffic in the surrounding neighbourhoods. Likely the green space would only be used during office hours and sit empty at other times. Although I’m not a botanist, I ponder how viable a green space would be built over a concreate structure, not to mention the shade that would be created with five menacing obelisks. The entire complex would be owned and managed privately making me wonder how “open” this green space would be. Certainly, private security and surveillance would be instituted as part of the plan.

I found the article interesting in light of recent efforts the city has made to open up access to large mega-block developments of the past. Regent Park was built around the time that this notion was popular. It became a glaring failure on several levels but for me the mega-block design was paramount. Regent Park began construction in the late 1940s and closed down approximately twelve city blocks. Over the ensuing decades the green spaces became little more than open fields and the recreational facilities reduced to places for illicit activity. Oak Street, cutting through the area, was closed to vehicular traffic limiting the ability of city services to operate. All this seclusion along with the visual barriers to the street provided by the apartment buildings made it the perfect place to evade detection. A little further east, a cul-de-sac was created on Oak Street and several multi-level residential units were built. In my mind the proposed development at Yonge and Eglinton may be doomed to a similar fate. It seems logical to me that building large scale developments has an extreme downside and a more organic development that includes public streets and staggered eclectic development would be better.

Why not keep the existing buildings and allow greater access to the space in between? Large commercial and residential units complemented by smaller, sustainable businesses would make the location a destination. When I think of my favourite places to visit in Toronto, Kensington Market, The Distillery District, Bloor West Village and Ossington come to mind where streets and pedestrian thoroughfares provide an opportunity to amble on a fine day.

Often when talking to friends and acquaintances I’m asked, “what do you think about the real estate market and when will it pop?” My quick answer usually goes something like this, “if I had that answer I wouldn’t be talking to you, rather, I would be on a private island living out my dreams”. In this blog I would like to discuss three important factors in trying to unravel the secrets of the market: subjectivity, sustainability and speculation.

To be honest there are no secrets, it comes down to being well informed and having the type of representation that has your best interest at heart. Depending on individual needs the time to enter the market is whenever you are ready. As the old adage goes, “don’t put off for tomorrow what you can do today”. Buyers and sellers should be more concerned with what suits their lifestyle and where will they find happiness. If you are making a lateral move and staying in the same area with relatively the same housing needs, buying and selling are co-dependent. If staying in the same area your buying and selling prices are going to be comparable unless you plan to down/upsize. Trying to sell high and buy low in the same market is fruitless when trying to purchase similar properties. For example, if I wanted to sell my fully decked out custom home and buy something similar, I should expect to sell high and buy high. If I’m willing to purchase a “fixer upper” in the same scenario there will be gains to be made. If I’m a senior and looking to downsize in the same market I should expect to gain far less than if I downsized to a rural area. Clients can spend their lives speculating on the best time to buy and sell while precious time passes looking after a property that no longer suits their needs.

It may surprise many, but 2020 was a much better year for real estate than 2019. If you recall 2019’s market was impacted by new mortgage rules that took time to settle in with consumers nationally. The Toronto market continued to be impacted by the municipal land transfer tax while the Vancouver market suffered from the taxes placed on foreign purchasers. Both these scenarios fuelled the real estate market in Montreal as investment money ran from the added costs in the other two markets. In 2020 the market was deeply impacted by the Covid crisis in the early going. As the year passed and interests rates dropped, all three of the major real estate markets soared. As we look optimistically toward the end of Covid, speculation must be tempered with the slow rollout of vaccines and sky-high infection numbers through at least the first quarter. Recovery on the stock markets has been swift, bolstered by the prospect of a new government in the United States among other factors.

Recently the December market numbers have been released. In my last blog, I discussed the role working from home and the need for more space have had on the market. House sales in the Toronto market were up 8% in 2020 over the previous year, while Vancouver saw a spike of 22%. In both cases the combination of cheap money and limited supply has returned us to bidding wars for many listings.

This eventuality brings the question of consumer sustainability. While many are looking for bigger properties, while interest rates are low, will consumers be able to sustain mortgage payments and desired lifestyles if rates creep 2 or 3 points higher?

The real estate market will always remain subjective and speculative. Trying to pinpoint when to sell for the highest price and then buy at a low price is a fool’s game. A better strategy would be to enter the market with the knowledge that you would like to move based on your personal, financial and lifestyle needs avoiding transaction remorse.

Being in the present is important for our health and perspective, our future presents a plethora of opportunities for growth. Without trying to be overly new age, the steps we take now will provide a brighter tomorrow. The new year is a fresh start and avoiding grand resolutions may help avoid self-deprecation as the winter months drag on. Bearing this in mind, the old adage “one day at a time” would be more useful to keep personal growth goals on the rails. To be resilient means to be mindful of all the things we as Canadians enjoy. Be kind and be well in 2021.

Over the holidays there was a newspaper article highlighting a proposed development in Vancouver, called Quantum Park. One interesting result of the pandemic was the ability technology has given us to be productive away from the office. Quantum Park will redevelop three hectares of industrial land in Vancouver’s inner harbour into mixed use (commercial/residential) property. The development will be part of moving the city toward a tech centric economy. Although the office will not completely be outmoded, Quantum Park will allow tech companies to lease office space and meeting areas in close proximity to employee dwellings making the morning commute obsolete.

Closer to home Toronto has been considering what to do with The Port Lands that stretch across the lake front from Cherry to Leslie Streets south of Lakeshore Boulevard. One of the most exciting announcements has been the naturalization of the Don River. This process will see the waters of the Don River flow freely into Lake Ontario for the first time in over a century. Parks, bridges, and foot paths will complement proposed residential spaces between the Keating and Shipping channels creating a new island. The area will be complemented by the existing Cherry Beach and Tommy Thompson Park (Leslie Street Spit).

Indeed, there are exciting times ahead for residential, commercial and leisure developments in the Greater Toronto Area. Over the next few months, we will be bringing some other interesting developments in real estate to our readers.

Thank you for your support over the last fifteen years, let’s take 2021 as it unfolds with a positive outlook toward a healthy and hopeful future.